In summary, the Diamond Princess case supports concerns re Covid-19 as opposed to undermining them. As of 30/03/2020, we still have a significant number of people suggesting the Covid-19, ‘Coronavirus’ pandemic is overblown; a ‘media-induced’ frenzy, ‘fear about fear’, an unsettling imposition of ‘authoritarian, dictatorial, undemocratic’ policies upon the free world.
One example often cited is that of the ‘Diamond princess’ cruise ship. Despite WHO (World Health Organisation) predicted mortality rates of 3.8% and above, fewer than 11 people have died from the 3,711 persons on board the Diamond Princess (to date). That is a mortality rate of 0.3%. How come?
In this video, I examine the FACTS concerning the Diamond Princess outbreak and examine the relationship between the Covid-19 infection on board, compared to outbreaks across the globe. I will highlight key points of interest, summarise and make recommendations.
Social-distancing, followed by cabin isolation of those on board, were key factors in controlling the spread of Covid-19. I note that 19.2% of those aboard became infected, which gives us an actual mortality rate of 1.55% – significantly higher than for seasonal flu (0.1%). I make reference to the lack of MGH – multi-generational housing aboard cruise ships and compare this with the high percentage of MGH in worst hit areas of the world, including Italy and Spain. I compare this MGH ratio with Northern European countries (low infection and/or Coronavirus mortality ratios) e.g. Germany and Sweden, where the percentage of MGH is significantly lower than in Italy and Spain.
The mortality rate for those aged 70+ from the Diamond Princess is 7.3% – a genuine cause for concern and inline with worldwide mortality rates for the elderly and those with chronic health conditions (up to 10% in Northern Italy).
Despite the Diamond Princess crew and passenger combination being in no way an accurate reflection of the general population ANYWHERE in the World, there are lessons to learn nonetheless. Testing for example – we have a much greater understanding of Covid-19, the infection rates, mortality rates and means to control same as a result of the significant proportion of testing carried out by Japanese officials on those aboard the Diamond Princess and in those countries/cities across the World who have given priority to this policy of TEST, TEST, TEST! If we do not know what the enemy looks like or how it moves around, how on earth are we to fight it?
The Coronavirus pandemic is not a media fantasy, it is not a hoax, we are not being lied to (well, mostly – the figures from certain countries are ‘unreliable’ at best), there is a genuine cause for concern and we ought to take the advice seriously.
As for predictions and best interventions, I suggest the USA (some weeks behind Europe) takes heed and implements strict isolation policies for those aged 70+ and those with chronic health conditions. Further, I suggest we learn the lessons from the Diamond Princess, Italy, Spain and China and separate the young from the elderly. Filling MGH will accelerate the spread of Covid-19, with disastrous consequences for the elderly housed within. I also note the link between MGH, socio-economic status and ethnicity. There is a significant probability that the hardest hit communities in the USA will match these criteria, unless measures are taken to intervene. Separation equals survival.